CONAB: Brazil 2016-2017 Coffee Crop Should Be Between 49.13 and 51.94 Million Bags

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – According to the first estimate of the 2016-2017 Brazil coffee crop from the National Supply Company (CONAB), Brazil will produce between 49.13 and 51.94 million bags.

Considering the average production of 50.5 million bags, this may be second largest crop in history, after the 2012 harvest which produced 50.8 million bags

The forecast indicates an increase of 13.6% to 20.1% from the 43.24 million bags produced in 2015.

This first estimate is an increase of 17.8% to 24.4% for Arabica production, which accounts for 76.5% of all coffee produced in the country.  Arabica production is estimated between 37.74 and 39.87 million bags.

The production of Conilon, representing 23.2% of the total, is estimated to be between 11.39 and 12.08 million bags, representing a growth of between 1.8 and 8% in relation to the 2015 harvest. This is due mainly to the recovery in productivity in the states of Espirito Santo, Bahia and in Rondonia, and the greater use of technology.

The total area planted with coffee in the country reached 2.25 million hectares, about the same cultivated in 2015. Of this total, 271,000 ha (12.1 %) are in training and 1.98 million ha (87.9%) in production. The area planted for Arabica coffee is 1.78 million ha, which corresponds to 79.2% of the existing area.

For the new crop, an increase of 0.8% (13 400 ha) is estimated. Minas Gerais has the largest area for coffee (1.2 million ha), corresponding to 67.8% of the area planted with Arabica coffee.  For Conilon, the survey indicates a 2.9% reduction in the estimated area at 468 200 ha. Of this total, 430,000 hectares are in production and 38,100 ha in training. The state of Espírito Santo is the largest area with 286 400 ha, followed by Rondônia, with 94,600 ha and Bahia, with 48 600 ha.

As for total productivity, the estimate is between 24.84 and 26.27 bags per ha, equivalent to an increase of 10.4% to 16.8% over the previous harvest. With the exception of Paraná, Rondônia and the region of Minas Gerais Zona da Mata, all other states have productivity growth. The reasons are favorable weather conditions in the main producing regions of Arabica, combined with the positive biennial cycle. The greatest gains are observed in the region of Triangulo Mineiro, Sao Paulo and South / Midwest Minas.

Alexis Rubinstein

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